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Upstate New York's 48th Senate District recently held a Special Election in which Democrat Darrel Aubertine defeated Republican Will Barclay. Aubertine's victory in a former solidly safe GOP district was a crystal ball into the future political demise of Republican State Senate majority leader Joe Bruno. The Queens Courier November 6th headline may very well read "Queens Democratic State Senate minority leader Malcolm Smith becomes the new State Senate majority leader as a result of the 2008 General Elections returns."
This defeat will have a direct impact on the future careers of Queens GOP Senators Frank Padavan and Serf Maltese, as well as all members of the current Republican State Senate majority.
Members of the GOP State Senate caucus may have regretted not following behind Rockland County GOP Senator John Bonacic. He was the only GOP Senator in 2007 brave enough to openly suggest what many fellow GOP Senators were whispering about behind closed doors, concerning the political future of Senate majority leader Joseph Bruno. In the end, with the exception of Senator Bonacic, they all acted like the cowardly lion from Oz by voting in lock step to reelect Senator Bruno as GOP Senate Majority Leader.
Bruno's strategy of staying in power by cross endorsing Democrats provided short term temporary gains in building his majority to seven votes. In the end, this long-term strategy to stay in power will be seen historically as a failure. Under his leadership, the GOP lost three seats when Senators Hoffman, Espada and Mendez switched from Democrat to Republican and lost when running in the General Election. On Bruno's watch, they also lost the seats of Republican Senators Vellela (Bronx), Goodman (Manhattan) Spano (Westchester) Balboni (Nassau) and now Barclay.
There are too many Senators in their 70's or 80's who continue postponing their retirements in deference to GOP Senate leader Bruno's desire to maintain Republican control of the Senate. In most cases, they have failed to help elect and groom any GOP Assemblymembers in overlapping districts to run for their seats. With no heir apparent, internal GOP polling shows that many of these seats will be lost once the long time Republican Senator retires rather than face reelection or dies in office. Queens GOP Senator Padavan has no heir apparent. Senator Maltese had NYC Councilmember Dennis Gallagher as a potential successor until his recent alleged local sex scandal.
Democrats licked their lips with joy when the GOP Senate caucus reelected Bruno as their leader. This kept Senator Bruno around as a political pinata for Democrats who now need only one more seat to control the Senate, which is the last New York GOP bastion. Senator Bruno along with the New York State GOP Committee and the New York State GOP Senate campaign committee probably remind Democrats of the Three Stooges. They just can't get anything right including winning elections in districts with favorable gerrymandered boundaries, enrollment edges of more Republicans than Democrats, a bushel full of special interest Pay for Play cash, endorsements, contributions, volunteers and telephone banks from Local Union 1199 Health and Hospital Workers, United Federation of Teachers and others on the receiving end of favorable pension or other legislation from Bruno and Senate Republicans. These elections in the past would have ended up as easy wins for Republicans. No wonder Democrats in Albany are laughing and smiling more these days as Father Time is clearly on their side.
The loss of Senator Barclay's seat has dropped Bruno's increasingly shrinking majority to a record low one-seat margin. This was never the case under past GOP State Senate majority leaders Warren Anderson and Ralph Marino. This puts them on the path to join their junior GOP partners in the Assembly, as members of the Senate minority after the 2008 elections if not sooner.
The Queens County Democratic clubhouse machine campaign to make Democratic State Senator Malcolm Smith majority leader in 2008 has been underway for months. They are running well-known New York City Council members Joseph Addabbo (against Senator Maltese) and James Gennaro (against Senator Padavan). Both NYC Councilmembers Addabbo and Gennaro already have high name recognition in their communities. Electoral boundaries for NYC Council districts overlap with those of the State Senate districts. Both Addabbo and Gennaro as Democratic State Senate candidates will each have hundreds of thousands of dollars at their disposal from the newly reinvigorated Democratic Statewide Senate campaign committee. Plenty of special interest, union, business and other groups will be investing their pay for play money by switching their bets from the GOP to Democrats. They will want to insure future access to a Democratic controlled Senate. The overwhelming cash advantages both Maltese and Padavan had in the past running against token Democrats, with no funding to mount real challenges, will disappear.
Unions such as New York State AFL-CIO, SEIU Local 1199 and New York State United Teachers who formerly gave big bucks to the GOP State Senate campaign committee, frequently endorsed both Padavan and Maltese along with providing volunteers and telephone banks will be returning to their natural Democratic ancestral home. Both Democratic challengers Addabbo and Gennaro will also have automatic access to several hundred of their union hall and equal number of local Democratic club house volunteers. In 2008, the odds of both Padavan and Maltese remaining in office will be heavily stacked against them.
Maltese and Padavan will have to run on their records. This includes consistently voting to increase deficits, excessive spending on an annual basis twice to three times the rate of inflation, supporting several hundred million dollars worth of yearly member item pork barrel projects and adoption of 21 out of the past 23 budgets late. Under their watch, NYS is number two nationally in debt. Each resident is responsible for $3,515 of the $50 billion total. State debt grew from $27 billion in 1995 to $50 billion today. Future red ink may raise this to $54 billion by 2009. NYS public authorities debt is $72 billion. These combined liabilities plus interest total $187 billion dollars. The voting records for both Maltese and Padavan have over time gone from being conservative Republicans to RINO (Republicans In Name Only) GOP Senators. Ironically, their Democratic opponents Addabbo and Gennaro may actually be able to run to the right of both claiming to be the real fiscal conservatives.
The long time political truce between the Queens GOP and Democrats has ended with the local Democrats aggressively working to defeat both Maltese and Padavan. With the exception of past former GOP Queens State Assemblymember Doug Prescott, NYC Councilmembers Mike Abel and Anthony Stabile -- the Queens GOP has never run serious candidates with ample funding to challenge any sitting NYC Council, State Assembly, State Senate or Congressional incumbent Democrat office holder, open general election seat or special election contest. This has gone on for decades. The last time Queens Republicans won a special election to fill any vacancy was with State Senator Sheldon Farber in 1977. He went on to lose the general election that same year. Virtually every Queens County Democratic elected official will end up with a free pass in the 2008 General Election. This frees up vast resources of the Queens Democratic Party organization to actively campaign against Senators Maltese and Padavan, rather than sitting on their hands, which they did in past elections.
I predict today that the switch of both seats from Republican to Democratic or one from Queens combined with another loss elsewhere will be end decades of GOP control of the State Senate. This will be the final inheritance left behind by former GOP Governor Pataki and Senate majority leader Bruno condemning their party to permanent minority status in the great Empire State at all levels of government. Not to worry, gentleman Joe Bruno and other GOP State Senators who may be retiring at the end of 2008 just like former Governor George Pataki will have a nice pension, a "golden parachute" at taxpayers expense to assist in enjoying future years of retirement. Don't be surprised to see if they stay around the halls of Albany as well compensated lobbyists.
6 years ago
