Voters and residents in Richmond Hill were shocked last week when long-serving Assemblyman Anthony Seminerio was arrested on charges of fraud after a federal investigation.
The biggest question now is what is likely to happen to Seminerio’s 38th Assembly District, which is now being represented by a man suspected of taking hundreds of thousands of dollars in bribes.
His legislative power is now reduced to essentially nothing, but he remains in the seat. The registration period to get a candidate on the ballot for either party has passed, so Seminerio is likely to hang on to his position for the rest of the year, barring a remarkable write-in campaign.
Vincent Tabone, vice-chairman of the Queens County Republicans, said that at no time was there a plan to run anyone against Seminerio, because his own politics, while liberal, were still considered conservative enough not to be a huge threat to the party.
“If and when Tony Seminerio decided to step down, we would be ready with a talented candidate from the community, but we’re putting the cart before the horse in discussing that.”
Seminerio, for his part, had a reputation in his district and in the Statehouse for being a fairly conservative Democrat. He had gained the endorsement of — and ran as — a member of the Queens Conservatives, while still caucusing with the Assembly’s Democratic Party.
In many instances, he’s stood against Democrats who have voted to raise taxes, voted against the Same-Sex Marriage Act, and against drug law reform legislation that geared New York states drug laws toward treatment and rehabilitation instead of incarceration.
Speculation has run rampant on the Democratic side of the aisle, as well, especially after it was revealed that the source of the investigation was disgraced former Assemblyman Brian McLaughlin.
Now that Seminerio seems to be next in line for a contentious fight for his job, the rumors have raged from censure to fielding a new Democratic candidate for an attempt at a special election.
Thus far, Democratic leaders have been mum on the subject, and have not returned calls and e-mails requesting comment.
The fallout from Seminerio’s arrest will take months, if not more than a year, to fully flower. Federal investigations often take many months to fully develop, and Seminerio is likely to try and hold onto his office to try and use his own resignation as a bargaining chip in the litigation and (most likely) sentencing process — much the way Alan Hevesi did during his own tumultuous legal troubles in 2006.
Some reports have speculated that the fall of Seminerio may have repercussions for the race between state Senator Serphin Maltese and City Councilman Joseph Addabbo Jr. for New York’s 15th Senatorial District.
Seminerio is close friends with Maltese, and has campaigned on his behalf in previous elections. Maltese said that he has spoken to Seminerio since his indictment.
Maltese categorically denies the assertion that Seminerio’s fraud charges will do anything to hurt him, and may even help by painting the Queens County Democrats with a broad brush of corruption.
“For my opponents to give me hard raps, when Seminerio is a Democrat, and they are fellow Democrats, is a little ridiculous,” he said. “I wonder just how many people are swayed by endorsements, anyway.”
Maltese was also quick to add that Seminerio had been fairly inactive on the campaign front this season, and chalked it up largely to pressure from Democrats across the board to support their candidate in the quest to regain the majority in the state Senate for the first time in decades.
On a personal level, Maltese said he was truly shocked by the charges, and alluded to the fact that Seminerio had maintained his innocence in recent conversations.
“I am amazed, I really am, I just can’t understand it,” Maltese said. “I have spoken to him, he said he feels he did nothing wrong and he feels he’ll ultimately be vindicated.”
With a stance like that, it would be hard to imagine a scenario in which the potentially disgraced assemblyman didn’t have to be forcibly dragged out of office.
Some political insiders believe that because of the extremely long period that occurs after a federal indictment but before a court case develops and prosecution occurs, Seminerio’s time in office isn’t quite over yet.
“My gut (says) he won’t relinquish the seat for a year and a half,” said one political insider who asked to remain nameless. “It’s not going to be in the spring, because these things always take time to gestate.”
