According to a poll paid for by the campaign of Republican Sen. Serphin Maltese (SD-15), who is being targeted by Democrats in the fight for the Senate majority this fall, Maltese is in a “better than expected position to win re-election”.
John McLaughlin & Associates, a GOP strategy and polling firm, is working for Maltese (SD-15), in his effort to fend off challengers Albert Baldeo and NYC Councilman Joseph Addabbo Jr.
According to this memo, in a three-way matchup, Maltese has a 27-point lead over Addabo - Maltese receives 45 percent, Addabbo gets 18%, and Baldeo receives 3%, with 35% undecided. For those voters who have an opinion of both canddiates, Maltese receives 53%, Addabbo 27%, and Baldeo 1% , with 19% undecided.
From the memo:
Based upon these results, incumbent Senator Serf Maltese is in better than expected position to win re-election. Senator Serf Maltese is building a strong organization throughout the district and is better prepared than two years ago. Also, unlike 2006 where Hillary Clinton and Eliot Spitzer were on top of the ballot, he now has a popular John McCain running against a less popular Democrat. Besides our hard work, we have benefited from recent events. Our most likely Democratic opponent lost his biggest backer when Governor Spitzer resigned in scandal. Also, for Queens Democrats there will be less enthusiasm for Senator Obama than Senator Clinton. In fact, some would prefer him to lose so she can run again in four years. One other sign of the Senator’s momentum for re-election, is that his endorsed candidate Anthony Como recently won the special election for City Council.
We still have much work to do, but Senator Maltese is in much better position than expected and has greatly improved his position for re-election.
Democratic strategist Doug Forand, who is taking the lead on the Democratic side for this fall, reads the exact opposite from the numbers.
“If on the initial trial heap, a 30-year incumbent is starting at under fifty percent, that’s a huge problem for Maltese. That’s a huge, huge problem,” said Forand.
“This shows that this race is well-positioned for a Democratic win. His own party has low expectations of him, as evidenced by the numbers. We’re pretty happy to hear these numbers.”
Democrats generally don’t comment on their own internal polling, but Forand said of Addabbo, “I think Joe’s numbers are much stronger than that.”
The stats:
SD-15: Incumbent: Republican Sen. Serphin Maltese
- Democrats: Favored candidate NYC Councilman Joseph Addabbo Jr. will face a primary against Albert Baldeo, who ran against Maltese in 2006 and lost by 800 votes.
- Enrollment stats: 72,254 Democrats and 29,995 Republicans.
- Record: In the past, Maltese has had a truce with the Queens Democratic Party; but with the margin of majority so thin in the Senate, the party is throwing its support behind a Democratic candidate, for which Addabbo is the favorite. Baldeo has said he would run as an independent candidate if he doesn’t receive the Democratic endorsement, which would help Maltese. Bruno has committed to spending upwards of $1 million to hold on to the seat, according to Maltese.
