Last week, we blogged about a poll that was commissioned by the campaign of Sen. Serphin Maltese, R-Queens, who is up for a tough reelection against challengers Albert Baldeo and NYC Councilman Joseph Addabbo Jr.
Democrats and Republicans interpreted the findings differently. And now, Red Horse Strategies, the firm that is managing the Democrats’ campaign to take over the Senate, has issued its own memo parsing out the Maltese campaign’s poll.
The memo looks at the demographics and methodology of the poll, suggesting that the findings are skewed in Maltese’s favor. Also, given Maltese’s name recognition, numbers, and demographics of the district, the memo argues that the numbers are not in Maltese’s favor.
In both of the memos, the tone is clearly partisan. From the Democrats’ memo:
Last week the Senate Republicans, in an apparent effort to shore up Senator Maltese’s eroding support within the political and donor communities, released the attached “analysis” done for a recent poll in the 15th SD, conducted by McLaughlin & Associates. This move creates a legal obligation for them to now release the full poll, so we can anticipate more complete information in the near future, but there is still ample information in the memo that bears further examination.
It should also be noted that while McLaughlin & Associates is a well-reputed research firm, the memo is clearly intended to be a document for media rather than a serious analysis, with language that is designed to portray the results in the most favorable light possible - at times going beyond what the data justifies.
(snip)
Regardless, the language clearly indicates that this memo was never intended to be a serious analysis, but rather an attempt to shore up Maltese’s flagging candidacy and counter the presumption that he is ill-positioned for re-election. The authors repeatedly state that Maltese is in a “better than expected position”, which is likely driven by the existing low expectations for this race, rather than a reflection of the strength (or lack thereof) of Maltese’s candidacy. Once we have the full poll results, we can do a more relevant comparison to see what the data actually indicates, but the data from this poll, skewed as it is, clearly shows Maltese to be in trouble. We do have to continue our work to raise Joe’s profile in those parts of the district that he does not currently represent, but given the current campaign apparatus and planning, we are very-well positioned to do so.
The Democrats’ memo suggests that the Republicans will need to release the poll in its entirety, which is disputed by John McLaughlin, who conducted the poll.
“We cleared it with legal counsel and according to state law, we have to include methodology and the exact wording of the questions, some key demographics. We complied with state law as to what is to be released,” said McLaughlin.
He added that the Democrats’ memo is “all spin.”
“We put out numbers and fact and they clearly are doing backflips to spin away the good news for Sen. Maltese in the district. The data speaks for itself, and without releasing any of their own polling or own research we know they’ve polled in the district and had focus groups in the area. We know they probably have similar data and its good news for Sen. Maltese and not good news for Joe Addabbo.”
