Saturday, October 31, 2009

Momentum Continues to Shift to Thompson Trails by Just Three Points, 44% to 41%

Polling completed last week by Garin Heart Yang Research Group, run by pollster Geoff Garin, showed there has been a significant shift and the race has moved closer toward Bill Thompson.

In a survey of 614 New Yorkers who are likely to vote in Tuesday's election for mayor, the vote overall is Bloomberg 46%, Thompson 38%, with 17% undecided. Among those who say they are certain to vote (305 in total in the sample), Thompson trails by just three points (Bloomberg 44%, Thompson 41%) with 15% undecided. The race has tightened in all five boroughs.

"We always said this would be a sprint and we are closing strong. This race will be decided on E lection Day. We are prepared to turn our voters out with a robust GOTV operation and elect Bill Thompson Mayor," stated New Yorkers for Thompson Campaign Manager, Eduardo Castell.

Among the overall sample, the vote is:

Whites: 59% to 28% for Bloomberg
African Americans: 53% to 25% for Thompson
Hispanics: 43% to 40% for Thompson, a big shift from last week, and the first time we have had Thompson leading with Hispanics.

The undecided voters are disproportionately minorities, which favors Thompson. Among undecided voters, 61% STRONGLY agree that Bloomberg was wrong to overturn term limits, and 64% agree that Bloomberg has had his chance as mayor and that eight years is enough.

In a question that is an important indicator of trends and campaign dynamics, a plurality of voters say what they are hearing lately makes them less favorable to Bloomberg (by 31% to 22%), including pluralities of whites, soft Bloomberg voters, and undecided voters. Bill Thompson had a negative dynamic on this measure last week, but now he has a slight positive plurality saying they have become more favorable to him, by 28% to 22%.