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Floods that happen every 100 years could come as often as every 10 years by the end of this century, Long Island lobsters will disappear and New York apples will be just a memory if nothing is done to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, according to a new report by the Union of Concerned Scientists.
The report was released at the New York Botanical Garden in the Bronx this morning, in the wake of several days of intense heat, of the kind that scientists warned could come more frequently if business continues as usual. James L. McCarthy, professor of biological oceanography at Harvard and president-elect of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, predicted that New York City might have to swelter through a full month with temperatures above 100 degrees. Prolonged heat could dry up the Catskill Mountains’ waters that supply the city, the report says, and air quality could decline, worsening conditions for people with asthma and allergies.
Seasonal changes, like earlier springs, longer summers and less-snowy winters, are already being seen are the result of heat-trapping gases released over the last century. But scientists said things would become far worse, and much more costly, unless steps are taken now to mitigate the impact.
The report is part of the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment, which its Web site describes as
a collaboration between the Union of Concerned Scientists and a team of independent experts using state-of-the-art tools to assess how global warming will affect the Northeast under two different scenarios: a higher emissions path with continued rapid growth in global warming pollution, and a lower emissions path with greatly reduced heat trapping emissions.
The eight-page report for New York [pdf] has a map showing wide swaths of the city that would be at greater risk for flooding. The New York report finds that “critical transportation infrastructure located in the Battery could be flooded far more frequently unless protected.”
Without reductions in emissions, sea levels could rise, inundating coastal areas on southern Long Island and pushing water over parts of lower Manhattan, flooding the financial district and pouring water into the subways, making them inoperable, according to the report.
Long Island lobsters would move to cooler waters up north, and without a hard frost to set buds, New York apple trees would not produce as much fruit as before. Under stress from the invasive species, maple beech and birch trees could disappear from certain regions of the state, including the Adirondacks. And since it would often be hotter than dairy cows find to be comfortable, milk production could decline by 15 percent or more in late summer months.
Rohit T. Aggarwala, New York City’s director of long-term planning and stability, said the report adds to “the growing stack of information and rigorous analysis that proves that the debate over climate change is over, and the time for action is now.”
Mr. Aggarwala said that New York City has already taken some steps that will position it to compete on a worldwide basis in the effort to control global warming. He said those efforts range from relatively simple ones, like promoting the use of compact fluorescent bulbs and converting the city’s taxi fleet to hybrid vehicles, to long-range strategic initiatives like congestion pricing.
The report did not include any analysis of the cost to consumers and industry of various efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. But Mr. Aggarwala said it is wrong to think that doing such planning always has a negative cost.
“Many of the things we can and must be doing will pay off because they make the city a better place to live,” he said. “They make New York City more efficient, more effective and more competitive not only around the country but around the world.”
